Brazilians are heading to the polls today, Sunday, October 25, for a presidential runoff that could reshape the politics of Latin America’s largest country. On one side is the leftist incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, chasing an unprecedented fourth term. On the other is right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who surprised pollsters by finishing first in the opening round earlier this month.

Going into election day, the two are virtually tied. Here is what you need to know, based on reporting from The Guardian, Reuters and Al Jazeera.

How we got here

The first round on October 4 delivered an upset. According to Reuters, Flávio Bolsonaro took about 47% of the vote, while Lula trailed with about 45%. The Guardian reports the gap was the narrowest ever recorded in a Brazilian first round, at less than two percentage points.

That result briefly made the 45-year-old senator the favourite. He also picked up the backing of most of the defeated first-round candidates, and his Liberal Party and other right-wing parties did well in the congressional races held at the same time. Brazil’s markets and currency rallied on his first-round showing, Reuters noted, on expectations of pro-business reforms.

But the three-week runoff campaign did not go entirely his way. Polls show Lula closing the gap in the final days, and the two candidates are now considered neck and neck.

Two very different pitches

The 81-year-old Lula has focused much of his runoff campaign on turnout. Abstention hit a record high in the first round, according to The Guardian, and it tends to hurt his voters more. His campaign also overhauled its digital strategy and benefited from student-led protests across the country, many of which were not organised by his party at all.

Lula can point to falling inequality and unemployment, but Reuters reports he has struggled to win over voters dealing with high living costs and heavy household debt.

Flávio Bolsonaro has leaned into those economic worries and into public anxiety about crime. His pledges include:

  • Building maximum-security “mega-prisons,” which The Guardian says are inspired by those in El Salvador
  • Chemical castration for serious sexual offences
  • Pardoning or freeing his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is under house arrest serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula

The senator is also under investigation in two federal police inquiries over alleged corruption and money laundering, according to The Guardian, which analysts say may have slowed his momentum.

The Trump factor

The race has played out against a tense backdrop with Washington. US President Donald Trump, a longstanding ally of the Bolsonaro family, called the case against Jair Bolsonaro a “witch hunt” and imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil in 2025 in a decision explicitly linked to the trial, Reuters reports. Many of those tariffs were later watered down, but new levies followed this year.

Lula has cast the Trump administration’s closeness to the Bolsonaros as an attempt to sway the election, an accusation Washington denies. A Bolsonaro win would extend a run of victories for right-wing, Trump-friendly candidates across Latin America, while a fourth Lula term would be a disappointment for the White House.

History versus momentum

History is on Flávio Bolsonaro’s side. Reuters points out that no candidate has ever won Brazil’s presidency after finishing second in the first round. If Lula pulls it off, it would be a genuine first.

Momentum, though, appears to have shifted toward the incumbent. The Guardian reports that with each camp’s core supporters largely locked in, the result will likely come down to the relatively small number of voters who don’t identify with either candidate.

Some analysts quoted by The Guardian also worry about what happens if the margin is razor-thin. They suggest that if Lula wins, the Bolsonaro camp could refuse to concede, as Jair Bolsonaro did four years ago.

When will we know?

According to Al Jazeera, polls open at 8 a.m. local time (11:00 GMT) and close at 5 p.m. local time (20:00 GMT). Nearly 160 million Brazilians are eligible to vote. Brazil uses electronic voting machines, so results usually arrive quickly once polls close, though a very close count could take longer to call.

The bottom line

Brazil’s choice today goes well beyond one country. It will decide whether South America’s biggest economy leans further right alongside many of its neighbours, or sticks with a veteran leftist attempting one of the most remarkable comebacks in the region’s modern history. With the polls practically even, both campaigns spent the final weekend chasing every last undecided voter. By tonight, the world should know which pitch worked.

Image: Brasilia National Congress by Xenia Antunes, Brazil. via Wikimedia Commons, Public Domain Mark 1.0