An aerial view shows homes burned in the Eaton Fire in Altadena, California, on Feb. 5, 2025. Mario Tama / Getty Images
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The enormous wildfires that ravaged Los Angeles in January were both more likely to form and more devastating due to climate change, a rapid study from the World Weather Attribution has found.
The scorching and dry conditions that led to the fires were made about 35% more likely due to human-caused climate change, the researchers concluded. Combined with low rainfall — the conditions for which were found the be 2.4 times more likely due to climate change — and dry vegetation to fuel the fires, the risk of fire compounded.
“Using several methods and lines of evidence, this study confirms that climate change made the catastrophic LA wildfires more likely,” Theo Keeping, wildfire researcher at the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires at Imperial College London said, according to a press release.
“With every fraction of a degree of warming, the chance of extremely dry, easier-to-burn conditions around the city of LA gets higher and higher.”
A report by World Weather Attribution found that climate change made the conditions leading to the Palisades and Eaton fire in L.A. County 35% more likely. https://eos.org/articles/how-much-did-climate-change-affect-the-los-angeles-wild…
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— Eos (@eos.org) February 1, 2025 at 12:06 PM
The researchers used combined weather data with computer models to analyze how how much of a factor climate change played in the blazes, comparing the pre-industrial climate to a more modern climate at about 1.3°C above that baseline.
They also used the Fire Weather Index, which “considers the hot, dry and windy conditions that drive wildfires,” and further analyzed the total rainfall from October to December, which normally marks the tail-end of the fire season, and used the drought code to determine how the duration of the fire season is changing in the region.
They found that the conditions that fueled the fires are expected to happen about once every 17 years, which is an increase of 35% compared to a pre-industrial climate. The Fire Weather Index was also found to be 6% more intense compared to an environment without climate change, which has increased somewhat exponentially in recent years.
“Fall rains usually dampen fuel, hindering the spread of fire, but in contrast to the two years prior, 2024 didn’t see any fall rains,” John Abatzoglou, professor of climatology at the University of California Merced, told reporters at an online press conference. “We actually finally got the first real rainfall this past weekend… but if you look at the calendar, we’re in the middle of the wet season.”
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While the fiercest fires usually occur during the dry summer months, the Santa Ana winds coming from the desert to the northeast, which are dry and warm, can help fuel destructive fires during other times of year. This year’s Santa Ana winds were especially fierce, the report found, fanning the fires by pushing sparks of fire to new areas, igniting more fires.
“It’s vital that we point out who is to blame for the fossil fuel pollution that is turbo-charging unnatural disasters like these,” Nadia Hasan, a communications advisor for nonprofit Global Witness, said in a statement. “Oil bosses have worked hand-in-glove with their friends in politics to bake dirty fossil fuels into our energy systems, block climate action, and spread lies about climate change to divide and distract us.”
“Instead of keeping communities safe, mega-rich oil firms are knowingly driving and profiting from the climate crisis. It’s high time we put them on the line for the costs of repair,” she added.
The fires have destroyed an estimated 16,000 structures and killed at least 28 people, with thousands being dropped from their home insurance mere months before the fires hit.
“Communities can’t build back the same because it will only be a matter of years before these burned areas are vegetated again and a high potential for fast-moving fire returns to these landscapes,” said Park Williams, professor of geography at the University of California.
The elderly, along with people with disabilities, low-income groups without access to personal vehicles, and groups who received late warnings were disproportionately impacted, the authors say. They also warned that fires exposed “critical weaknesses” in LA’s water infrastructure, which was designed for more routine fires than especially devastating ones.
The report warns that if global warming reaches an average of 2.6° C, which is the “lowest warming expected under current policies by 2100,” we can expect the Fire Weather Index to be 3% more intense, with similar fires 35% more probable.
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