Snow
in
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during
a
winter
storm.
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The
collapse
of
the
Atlantic
Meridional
Overturning
Circulation
(AMOC)
—
a
system
of
ocean
currents
that
pulls
warm
water
from
the
Southern
Hemisphere
and
the
tropics
to
the
Northern
Hemisphere
—
could
put
some
parts
of
the
globe
in
a
“deep
freeze,”
according
to
a
new
study
by
researchers
from
the
Netherlands.
The
findings
suggest
that,
under
an
intermediate
greenhouse
gas
emissions
scenario,
global
heating
would
not
be
enough
to
outweigh
the
cooling
effects
of
an
AMOC
collapse,
reported
Carbon
Brief.
“The
Atlantic
Meridional
Overturning
Circulation
(AMOC)
moderates
the
European
climate.
A
substantially
weaker
AMOC
under
climate
change
may
cause
a
cooler
Europe
in
a
warmer
world,”
the
authors
of
the
study
wrote.
“Apart
from
temperature
changes,
winter
storms
are
expected
to
strengthen
and
give
rise
to
large
day-to-day
temperature
fluctuations
under
a
substantially
weaker
AMOC.
The
European
temperatures
of
the
(far)
future
are
set
by
the
AMOC
strength
and
the
amount
of
global
warming.”
NEW
–
Ocean
current
‘collapse’
could
trigger
‘profound
cooling’
in
northern
Europe
–
even
with
global
warming
|
@ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org
w/comment
from
Rene
van
Westen
Read
here:
buff.ly/iMXdkOR[image
or
embed]—
Carbon
Brief
(@carbonbrief.org)June
11,
2025
at
9:00
AM
In
the
world
modeled
in
the
study,
one
out
of
every
10
London
winters
could
bring
low
temperatures
close
to
minus-four
degrees
Fahrenheit.
Meanwhile,
winter
extremes
in
Oslo,
Norway,
could
drop
to
around
minus-54.4
degrees.
To
help
visualize
the
global
impacts
of
a
collapse
of
AMOC,
the
scientists
created
an
interactive
map.
Scientists
have
warned
that
continued
global
heating
due
to
human-caused
climate
change
could
result
in
AMOC
reaching
a
“tipping
point.”
“What
if
the
AMOC
collapses
and
we
have
climate
change?
Does
the
cooling
win
or
does
the
warming
win?”
asked
co-author
of
the
findings
René
van
Westen,
a
marine
and
atmospheric
researcher
at
Utrecht
University
in
the
Netherlands,
as
CNN
reported.
Van
Westen
told
CNN
theirs
was
the
first
study
to
use
a
complex,
modern
climate
model
to
answer
that
question.
The
study
focused
mostly
on
the
impacts
of
an
“intermediate
scenario
with
AMOC
collapse.”
The
researchers
considered
a
scenario
where
AMOC
weakened
by
80
percent
and
the
planet’s
temperature
was
roughly
two
degrees
Celsius
above
pre-industrial
levels.
Even
in
the
hotter
world,
they
found
that
Europe
would
experience
“substantial
cooling.”
The
scientists
found
that
sea
ice
would
spread
into
Scandinavia,
the
Netherlands
and
parts
of
the
U.S.
In
these
areas,
cooling
would
be
amplified
by
the
sun’s
rays
being
reflected
off
the
white
surface
of
snow
and
ice.
“[The
new
study]
uses
a
sophisticated
climate
model
with
good
regional
resolution
–
far
better
than
what
was
possible
26
years
ago.
The
model
confirms
the
long-standing
concern
that
an
AMOC
collapse
would
have
massive
impacts
on
European
climate,
in
this
case
focusing
on
temperature
extremes,”
Stefan
Rahmstorf,
a
professor
of
physics
of
the
oceans
at
Potsdam
University,
who
did
not
contribute
to
the
research,
told
Carbon
Brief.
Uncertainty
in
the
face
of
serious
danger
is
of
course
no
reason
to
ignore
it.
Passing
that
#AMOC
tipping
point
by
mid-century
looks
increasingly
likely
in
light
of
recent
studies.
And
there’s
also
a
more
imminent,
albeit
a
bit
less
detrimental
risk:
bsky.app/profile/rahm…[image
or
embed]—
Prof.
Stefan
Rahmstorf
(@rahmstorf.bsky.social)June
11,
2025
at
11:38
AM
The
“profound
cooling”
with
more
intense
winter
extremes
in
northwest
Europe
would
be
contrasted
with
slightly
cooler
summer
temperatures.
This
would
mean
Europeans
would
see
dramatic
temperature
swings
throughout
the
year.
“The
extreme
winters
would
be
like
living
in
an
ice
age.
But
at
the
same
time
summer
temperature
extremes
are
barely
impacted
–
they
are
slightly
cooler
than
they
would
be
due
to
global
warming,
but
still
with
hotter
extremes
than
the
preindustrial
climate,”
said
Professor
Tim
Lenton,
University
of
Exeter
chair
of
climate
change
and
Earth
system
science.
“This
means
the
seasonality
of
the
climate
is
radically
increased.
In
extreme
years
it
would
be
like
coming
out
of
the
freezer
into
a
frying
pan
of
summer
heatwaves.”
The
study,
“European
Temperature
Extremes
Under
Different
AMOC
Scenarios
in
the
Community
Earth
System
Model,”
was
published
in
the
journal
Geophysical
Research
Letters.
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