A recent “extraordinary” heatwave throughout Central Asia was strengthened by climate change, which bolstered the warming by nearly half and made the event roughly three times as likely, according to a new study from the World Weather Attribution (WWA).
The heatwave from March 18-22 saw temperatures soar to upward of 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal averages throughout Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
The researchers found that human-caused climate change worsened the heatwave by at least 4 degrees Celsius, which they say is likely an underestimate as the models “fail to capture the region’s unusually rapid March temperature increases.”
“Climate change is death by a thousand cuts. People often focus on major tipping points, but with every fraction of a degree of warming, life slowly becomes more expensive and more dangerous,” said Fredi Otto, co-lead of the WWA and senior lecturer in climate science at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, in a press release.
“This heatwave is a perfect example – hotter March temperatures are impacting agriculture harvests and access to water in Central Asia, as well as people’s health.”
The researchers analyzed weather data during the heatwave and used a model with a huge amount of historical and simulated data to determine the impact climate change had on the heatwave.
They took the five-day average of both minimum and maximum daily temperatures across central Asia during the heatwave and used the data to model the role of climate change.
“Our heatwave studies often look at minimum temperatures because hot nights can be dangerous when the body isn’t able to rest and recover after a hot day,” Sam Fraser-Baxter, WWA’s communications manager, told EcoWatch in an email.
The researchers used data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Multi-Source Weather dataset, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and Global Historical Climatology Network daily for historical data going as far back as 1950. They also used computer models to simulate different potential warming scenarios going to 2050, which allowed them to determine whether the heatwave was out of the norm.
The researchers found that while this heatwave was especially intense, similar ones are now expected every three years or so.
“Looking at a world that’s 2.6 degrees warmer (than the pre-industrial average), so a further 1.3 degrees from now, the climate models — again, likely a conservative estimate — find that heat waves like this will double in likelihood again and become another 2 degrees more intense,” Ben Clarke, the study’s lead author said at an online press briefing.
But, Clarke said, when modeling a climate that’s 1.3 degrees cooler than it currently is, or essentially a world without climate change, the researchers found that “these kinds of events would have been essentially impossible.”
As warming continues and similar events happen more frequently, it will threaten people already more vulnerable, Maja Vahlberg, a technical advisor for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, said in the press briefing.
“Water, electricity and health services which are vital for daily life are under growing strain,” she said. “Many of these rely on aging infrastructure, and some operate close to capacity even in normal conditions. In this case, timing made things worse. This heat wave struck in March, a month usually seen as transitional and not extreme.”
“Yet, this year the heat arrived early and with force, just as wheat was being sown in Kazakhstan, and fruit crops, like cherries and apricots, were flowering in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.”
Warming events in the region can present a major threat to agriculture, as the landlocked nations often rely on a steady and predictable stream of glacial runoff for their crops, especially during the peak growing season. But sudden heatwaves that increase the rate of glacial melting can threaten that predictability.
“Even a week-long heatwave like this one can accelerate glacial melt, disrupting the delicate seasonal balance that many of these communities rely on. Snowmelt is arriving earlier, less predictably and increasingly out of sync with peak demand,” Vahlberg said.
“When Nature’s timing falls out of rhythm with the seasons we depend on, what begins as a heatwave can ripple into disrupted harvests, power shortfalls, and water stress over the months to come,” she said. “What should have been the start of a productive season may now bring losses on farms, incomes, and across food supply chains.”
The researchers say that as similar heatwaves become more likely as the planet warms, they can lead to further glacial retreating and desertification across central Asia.
While countries in the region have taken adaptation steps, the report stresses that action to adapt to similar events is crucial, including adjusting the planting calendar, planting crops better suited to high heat and investing in “resilient irrigation.”
“This is a heatwave that didn’t make headlines – it happened in spring and in a region that isn’t exactly known for blistering heatwaves. However, it shows the far-reaching consequences of climate change,” Vahlberg said in the press release.
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