Composite
image
from
GOES-East
and
the
JPSS
Visible
Infrared
Imaging
Radiometer
Suite
shows
Hurricane
Helene
impacting
the
U.S.
East
Coast
on
Sept.26,
2024.
NOAA
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The
United
States
National
Oceanic
and
Atmospheric
Administration
(NOAA)’s
outlook
for
the
2025
Atlantic
hurricane
season
—
June
1
to
November
30
—
predicts
a
60
percent
chance
of
it
being
“above
normal,”
a
30
percent
chance
of
it
being
near
normal
and
a
10
percent
chance
that
it
will
be
below
normal.
The
agency
forecasts
that
there
will
be
13
to
19
named
storms
with
winds
39
miles
per
hour
(mph)
or
higher.
Of
those,
between
six
and
10
are
predicted
to
become
hurricanes
with
74
mph
or
higher
winds,
including
from
three
to
six
major
hurricanes
of
category
3,
4
or
5
with
111
mph-plus
winds.
The
prediction
for
an
above-normal
season
is
due
to
a
combination
of
factors
that
have
a
tendency
to
favor
the
formation
of
tropical
storms,
including
warmer
ocean
temperatures,
continuing
ENSO-neutral
conditions,
a
weak
wind
shear
forecast
and
the
possibility
of
increased
activity
from
the
West
African
Monsoon
—
a
key
starting
point
for
hurricanes
in
the
Atlantic,
a
press
release
from
NOAA
said.
[embedded content]
Higher
ocean
temperatures
in
the
Atlantic
Basin
means
more
energy
for
the
development
of
storms,
while
reduced
trade
winds
allow
storms
to
develop
unabated.
The
potential
for
the
West
African
monsoon
to
shift
northward
could
produce
tropical
waves
that
can
be
the
seeds
for
some
of
the
longest
and
strongest
Atlantic
storms.
“This
outlook
is
a
call
to
action:
be
prepared.
Take
proactive
steps
now
to
make
a
plan
and
gather
supplies
to
ensure
you’re
ready
before
a
storm
threatens,”
said
Ken
Graham,
director
of
NOAA’s
National
Weather
Service,
in
the
press
release.
NOAA
said
this
season
it
will
improve
forecast
communications.
Among
the
improvements
is
that
advance
notice
of
potential
tropical
cyclone
risks
will
be
provided
by
the
NOAA
Climate
Prediction
Center’s
Global
Tropical
Hazards
Outlook
three
weeks
ahead
of
time
instead
of
two,
providing
extra
time
for
people
to
prepare.
“As
we
witnessed
last
year
with
significant
inland
flooding
from
hurricanes
Helene
and
Debby,
the
impacts
of
hurricanes
can
reach
far
beyond
coastal
communities,”
said
Acting
NOAA
Administrator
Laura
Grimm.
“NOAA
is
critical
for
the
delivery
of
early
and
accurate
forecasts
and
warnings,
and
provides
the
scientific
expertise
needed
to
save
lives
and
property.”
However,
some
scientists
fear
the
country
is
not
as
prepared
as
it
was
a
year
ago,
reported
The
Washington
Post.
NOAA’s
workforce
has
been
depleted
by
the
firing
of
probationary
workers
and
early
retirements,
bringing
staff
numbers
down
from
roughly
12,000
to
about
10,000,
according
to
Rick
Spinrad,
who
was
administrator
of
the
agency
under
President
Joe
Biden.
The
cuts
have
led
to
staff
shortages
of
up
to
30
percent
in
major
divisions
throughout
the
agency,
including
“hurricane
hunters”
who
fly
into
the
heart
of
the
storms,
workers
who
launch
local
weather
balloons
and
climate
scientists
who
maintain
models
used
to
predict
the
intensity
and
track
of
hurricanes.
“Even
if
we
have
an
average
season,
I
think
we’re
going
to
be
stretching
the
limit
of
[NOAA’s]
capabilities,”
Spinrad
said,
as
The
Washington
Post
reported.
An
average
hurricane
season
in
the
Atlantic
means
14
named
storms,
seven
of
which
become
hurricanes,
with
three
major
hurricanes.
The
Federal
Emergency
Management
Agency
(FEMA)
leads
the
country’s
disaster
response
and
recovery,
but
repeated
calls
from
the
Trump
administration
and
Secretary
of
the
Department
of
Homeland
Security
(DHS)
Kristi
Noem
to
“eliminate”
FEMA
have
caused
internal
confusion
about
the
agency’s
mission,
including
how
fast
its
response
should
be
to
states’
disaster
requests,
reported
CNN.
“When
it’s
taking
months
for
a
disaster
declaration
to
be
granted,
the
people
on
the
ground
could
potentially
think,
well,
FEMA
is
just
not
going
to
be
here
because
they’re
gone,
because
the
president
and
the
(DHS)
secretary
got
rid
of
them,”
said
Deanne
Criswell,
former
FEMA
chief
under
President
Biden,
as
CNN
reported.
NOAA’s
2025
outlook
is
for
overall
hurricane
season
activity,
not
a
landfall
forecast.
NOAA
has
also
issued
hurricane
outlooks
for
the
central
Pacific
and
eastern
Pacific
hurricane
basins.
The
2025
Atlantic
hurricane
season
outlook
will
be
updated
by
the
Climate
Prediction
Center
in
early
August,
before
the
season’s
historical
peak.
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