Israelis voted on Tuesday, October 27, and by Wednesday morning one thing was clear: nobody has won outright. With most ballots counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc is the largest camp in the race, but it is several seats short of the 61 needed to command a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. His main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, is further back, but the wider anti-Netanyahu camp is larger on paper.

Here is what the partial results show, based on figures from Israel’s Central Elections Committee as reported by The Times of Israel, CNN and The Guardian.

The numbers so far

With 76.8% of ballot boxes counted as of late Wednesday morning Israel time, the Central Elections Committee’s partial results gave:

  • Netanyahu’s bloc (Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism): 54 seats
  • The Eisenkot-led bloc of Jewish opposition parties: 47 seats
  • Arab-led parties (the Joint List and Ra’am): 19 seats

Likud remains the single biggest party, with around 27 seats, while Eisenkot’s Yashar! list is second with around 20 to 21. Several smaller parties, including the Reservists list, were below the 3.25% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Turnout was high. About 5.7 million people voted by the close of polls, roughly 77.7% of eligible voters, according to figures published by the elections committee.

Why the count isn’t finished

The partial numbers will move. Votes cast in so-called double envelopes, which include ballots from soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients and prisoners, are counted later. CNN reported it will take several days to finalize the count, and seat totals can shift by one or two as parties cross or miss the threshold.

That matters in a race this tight. A single seat moving from one camp to another can change which coalitions are mathematically possible.

A big drop for Netanyahu

Even if his bloc gains a seat or two, the result is a sharp fall from the 68-seat coalition Netanyahu led in the outgoing Knesset, CNN noted. The Guardian reported that while Likud still won the most votes, Netanyahu’s far-right allies, the parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, saw their support decline.

CNN described Netanyahu as defiant despite the lack of a clear winner, and Likud’s position as the largest party gives it a strong claim to try to form a government first.

The Arab parties as potential kingmakers

The biggest story of the count may be the Arab-led lists. As more ballots were tallied, the Joint List and Ra’am rose to a combined 19 seats, a result The Guardian said puts them in a potential kingmaker position.

Here is the arithmetic. Parties opposed to Netanyahu hold a majority between them, but only if the Jewish opposition bloc can work with the Arab-led parties in some form, whether as coalition partners or by supporting a government from outside. That has been politically sensitive in Israel, and how Eisenkot and his allies approach it will shape the coming weeks.

What happens next

Once the results are certified, Israel’s president consults with every party that won seats and then asks the lawmaker seen as most likely to build a coalition to try. That person gets an initial period of several weeks, which can be extended. If nobody manages to form a government, Israel could face yet another election.

Key things to watch:

  1. The final count. Double-envelope votes could nudge either bloc closer to, or further from, 61.
  2. Threshold drama. Parties hovering near 3.25% can make or break a coalition.
  3. Who talks to whom. Whether any party crosses traditional lines to join a government will decide whether Netanyahu stays in office.

The bottom line

Israel’s voters have handed down a split verdict. Netanyahu’s camp is the biggest, but it is not big enough to govern alone, and the opposition can only win by building an unusually broad coalition. With the count still running and negotiations about to begin, the most honest answer to “who won?” is: not yet anyone.

Image: Knesset Israeli Parliament Building (41404889170) by Gary Todd from Xinzheng, China via Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0