After four games of trading punches, the American League Championship Series finally has a team on the brink. The Tampa Bay Rays beat the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 in Game 5 on Sunday at Progressive Field, taking a 3-2 series lead and heading home needing just one more win to reach the World Series, where the Milwaukee Brewers are already waiting.

Rasmussen does it again

The story of the night was Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen. According to MLB.com, he held Cleveland to four hits and one walk while striking out six over seven innings.

MLB.com’s Adam Berry pointed out that the series had followed a strict pattern, with the teams alternating wins through the first four games. By that logic Game 5 belonged to Cleveland. But since the All-Star break, there has been an even more reliable pattern: when Rasmussen starts, the Rays usually win. Game 1 of this series had been the exception. Game 5 was not.

How the runs came

The Rays built their lead early and then let their pitching take over. The Baseball-Reference box score shows Tampa Bay scored one run in each of the first three innings. Cleveland didn’t get on the board until the sixth, and that was all the Guardians could manage. Once Rasmussen handed the ball to the bullpen after seven innings, Tampa Bay’s relievers closed the door over the final two frames to protect the two-run cushion.

A few more numbers from the box score:

  • Hits: Rays 12, Guardians 5. Neither team committed an error.
  • Decisions: Rasmussen improved to 2-0 this postseason. Cleveland starter Parker Messick took the loss, falling to 0-3, and Bryan Baker earned his fifth save.
  • The setting: 36,303 fans at Progressive Field for a game that took two hours and 50 minutes.

A series of swings

Here’s how the ALCS has unfolded so far:

  • Game 1: Guardians 7, Rays 3
  • Game 2: Rays 3, Guardians 1
  • Game 3: Guardians 3, Rays 2
  • Game 4: Rays 7, Guardians 3
  • Game 5: Rays 3, Guardians 1

With the win, MLB.com notes, the Rays are one victory away from the franchise’s third trip to the World Series.

Cleveland’s pitching puzzle

The Guardians now face elimination, and their plan for Game 6 was still unsettled Sunday night. As Yahoo Sports reported, manager Stephen Vogt confirmed that Gavin Williams, who set a franchise record with nine strikeouts in five innings in Cleveland’s Game 3 win, will not pitch on short rest. That points toward a bullpen-heavy approach, with options such as Daniel Espino as an opener and arms like Joey Cantillo, Foster Griffin and Tanner Bibee available to bridge the gap to Cleveland’s trusted relievers.

If the Guardians can force a Game 7, Williams would be lined up to pitch it on Tuesday.

What’s next

Game 6 is set for Monday, October 19, at Tropicana Field, with first pitch scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET. If Cleveland wins, Game 7 would follow on Tuesday night, also in St. Petersburg.

The winner will meet the Brewers, who swept the Dodgers to claim their first National League pennant. The World Series is scheduled to open Friday, October 23, in Milwaukee.

The bottom line

The Rays have the momentum, home field for the rest of the series and their ace’s performance fresh in everyone’s minds. The Guardians have shown all October that they can bounce back, including a comeback from two games down against the White Sox in the Division Series. One more win sends Tampa Bay to the Fall Classic. One more loss, and Cleveland’s season is over. Monday night should be a good one.

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