Panem looks set for a big Thanksgiving. “The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping,” the prequel about a young Haymitch Abernathy, has entered box office tracking with a projected U.S. opening of at least $60 million, according to an exclusive Deadline report published October 29. Rival studios reportedly expect the three-day start to go higher still, possibly beyond $70 million.
The film, directed by franchise veteran Francis Lawrence, opens in theaters on November 20. Here is what the early numbers say and why expectations are rising.
The numbers so far
Deadline reports that the movie has hit tracking with a “floor” of $60 million-plus domestically. For context, the previous chapter, 2023’s “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes,” opened to $44.6 million in the U.S. and went on to earn $166.3 million domestically and $394 million worldwide.
A $60 million or $70 million start would mark an upturn for the sixth film in a series, which is unusual for a franchise this far along. It would still trail the franchise record: 2013’s “Catching Fire” holds the biggest domestic opening in the series at $158 million.
Why the buzz is building
Several signals point to strong interest, according to the report:
- Trailer views. The first trailer drew 109 million views in its first 24 hours, the second most for any Lionsgate trailer after “Michael.”
- Young audiences. “First choice” interest among women under 25 is described as on par with “Wicked,” and men under 25 are not far behind.
- The book’s success. Suzanne Collins’ novel sold more than 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week, the best debut in the Hunger Games book series, including 1.2 million in the U.S. alone.
- Fan events. Lionsgate held a London fan event with the cast and has another planned in Los Angeles next week.
Deadline also notes that overall first-choice interest is higher than it was for “Wicked,” “Michael” and “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” and on par with “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.”
What the movie is about
“Sunrise on the Reaping” is set 24 years before the events of the original “The Hunger Games.” It begins on the morning of the reaping for the 50th Hunger Games, the Second Quarter Quell, and tells the story of how Haymitch Abernathy, the mentor Woody Harrelson played in the earlier films, became a victor.
Joseph Zada plays young Haymitch, and Jesse Plemons plays a younger Plutarch Heavensbee, the role Philip Seymour Hoffman originated. The cast also includes Ralph Fiennes, Glenn Close, Kieran Culkin, Elle Fanning, Mckenna Grace, Maya Hawke, Whitney Peak and Kelvin Harrison Jr. Deadline also points to reported cameos from original stars Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson as another draw.
A tougher Thanksgiving to beat
Even with strong tracking, the movie arrives in a crowded corridor. The past two Thanksgiving seasons were huge: the five-day 2024 holiday stretch, powered by “Wicked,” “Moana 2” and “Gladiator II,” set a record with $424.9 million, and last year’s five-day period was the fourth best ever at $292.8 million, according to Deadline.
So a big opening for “Sunrise on the Reaping” would be good news for Lionsgate, but matching recent holiday records will depend on what else is in theaters that week.
Why it matters for Lionsgate
Lionsgate has already had a big year with “Michael,” which opened to $97.2 million in the U.S. and has earned $218.8 million worldwide, Deadline notes. A strong Hunger Games debut would give the studio a second major hit in the same year and show that the franchise, which has grossed more than $3.4 billion worldwide across five films, still has room to grow.
The bottom line
Tracking is a forecast, not a result, and early numbers often shift as release day gets closer. Still, the first signs for “The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping” are very promising. If the projections hold, Haymitch’s origin story could give the franchise its best opening in years when it arrives on November 20.
Image: Movie theater seats (Unsplash) by Elijah Flores baesik via Wikimedia Commons, CC0 1.0
